Sahm rule recession indicator — Recession signal in United States
United States: Sahm rule recession indicator — Recession signal was 0 Unspecified in 2026. ◆ Volatile
Sahm rule recession indicator — Recession signal in United States, 1955–2026
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Measured in Unspecified.
Analysis
United States recorded 0 Unspecified for sahm rule recession indicator — recession signal in 2026. That is the lowest value across all 72 years on record.
The figure is down 100.0% over five years.
Over the whole period, sahm rule recession indicator — recession signal in United States peaked at 1 Unspecified in 1957 and was at its lowest, 0 Unspecified, in 1955.
That places United States 9th out of 30 countries with data for 2026, putting it in the middle of the range.
The series is highly variable year to year, so single readings are best treated with caution.
Sahm rule recession indicator — Recession signal in United States, year by year
| Year | Unspecified | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1955 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1956 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1957 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 1958 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1959 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1960 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1961 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1962 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 1963 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1964 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1965 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1966 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1967 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1968 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1969 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1970 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 1971 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1972 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 1973 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1974 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 1975 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1976 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1977 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 1978 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1979 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1980 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 1981 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1982 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1983 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1984 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 1985 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1986 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1987 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1988 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1989 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1990 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 1991 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1992 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 1993 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 1994 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1995 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1996 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1997 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1998 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 1999 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2000 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2001 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 2002 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 2003 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 2004 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 2005 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2006 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2007 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2008 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 2009 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 2010 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 2011 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 2012 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2013 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2014 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2015 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2016 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2017 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2018 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2019 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2020 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 2021 | 1 Unspecified | +0.0% |
| 2022 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 0 Unspecified | — |
| 2024 | 1 Unspecified | — |
| 2025 | 0 Unspecified | -100.0% |
| 2026 | 0 Unspecified | — |
Averages by decade
| Decade | Average | Lowest | Highest | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950s | 0.6 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 5 |
| 1960s | 0.2 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 10 |
| 1970s | 0.5 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 10 |
| 1980s | 0.4 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 10 |
| 1990s | 0.3 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 10 |
| 2000s | 0.5 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 10 |
| 2010s | 0.1 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 10 |
| 2020s | 0.4286 Unspecified | 0 Unspecified | 1 Unspecified | 7 |
Countries ranked near United States
- 9 Canada 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Australia 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 France 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Denmark 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Italy 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Sweden 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Finland 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Belgium 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Germany 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Portugal 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Spain 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Hungary 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Austria 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Greece 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Estonia 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Lithuania 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Poland 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Latvia 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Mexico 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Iceland 0 Unspecified compare
- 9 Türkiye 0 Unspecified compare
More reference data data for United States
- GERD by sector of performance and NUTS 2 region 932,442 (2024)
- Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector of performance and source 847,935 US dollars, PPP converted (2024)
- STAN Database for Structural Analysis, 2025 edition — Employees 268,319 Hours (2023)
- Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector of performance and type 847,935 US dollars, PPP converted (2024)
- Composition of General Services Support Estimate — Hydrological 0 Percentage of general services support estimate (2024)
- Composition of General Services Support Estimate — Storage, marketing 0.0253 Percentage of general services support estimate (2024)
- Composition of General Services Support Estimate — Farm 0 Percentage of general services support estimate (2024)
- Composition of General Services Support Estimate — Miscellaneous 13.49 Percentage of general services support estimate (2024)
- Contribution to change in Producer Support Estimate by country, 2023 35,251 Euro (2024)
- Composition of General Services Support Estimate — Collective schemes 0 Percentage of general services support estimate (2024)
Frequently asked questions
- What is sahm rule recession indicator — recession signal in United States?
- Sahm rule recession indicator — recession signal in United States was 0 Unspecified in 2026, according to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
- What is the highest sahm rule recession indicator — recession signal recorded in United States?
- The highest recorded value was 1 Unspecified in 1957.
- What is the lowest sahm rule recession indicator — recession signal recorded in United States?
- The lowest recorded value was 0 Unspecified in 1955.
- How does United States rank for sahm rule recession indicator — recession signal?
- United States ranks 9th out of 30 countries with data for 2026.
- Where does this United States data come from?
- The figures come from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, published as part of Sahm rule recession indicator — Recession signal. Statizoid updates them automatically from the source API.
Download this data
CSV · JSON — 72 observations, free to reuse under OECD Terms and Conditions (attribution required).
About this data
The Sahm rule is a simple recession indicator based on increases in the unemployment rate. Originally developed for the United States, it is triggered when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its lowest level in the previous year. To assess its usefulness beyond the United States, the OECD has calculated the Sahm indicator for OECD countries using monthly unemployment rates from the OECD Labour Force Surveys and replaced the fixed U.S. threshold with country-specific thresholds. Under this approach, the indicator is triggered when the three-month average unemployment rate rises above its country-specific threshold relative to its lowest level in the previous year. For more information please refer to Can we predict recessions using only unemployment data? Applying the Sahm rule to OECD countries.